NSW vs. QLD: State of Origin Game 3 Tips & Predictions

We have New South Wales vs. Queensland predictions for Game 3 of State of Origin on Wednesday, July 9 at 8:05pm at Accor Stadium.

The State of Origin series is on the line in Sydney, where the Blues are $1.40 favourites to bounce back and claim another series victory.

New South Wales vs. Queensland Predictions

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Best Bet

Queensland +8.5 @ $1.90

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Queensland has been the underdog in every game throughout the series, and we cashed with the Maroons covering the +8.5 spread in Game 2. Punters get the same spread for Game 3, and although winning in Sydney is tough, this team is good enough to keep it close.

Making Cameron Munster the captain was a master stroke from coach Billy Slater. Munster produced a Man of the Match performance, which paid $15 for punters, and he’s ready to lead the Maroons to an unlikely and famous victory.

The Maroons play their best rugby league when they’re least expected to win. That was the case in Game 2, and it’s the case again. However, they dig deep when their backs are against the wall but never doubt a champion team.

They have the players needed to win, and at the very worst, cover the points spread. We can’t see it being a one-sided game, so take the points whilst they’re available.

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Same Game Multi

Queensland +8.5, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Try Scorer, Brian To’o Anytime Try Scorer, Under 43.5 @ $13.75

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There is exceptional value with State of Origin prop bets, including getting $2.30 for Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to score a try. He has a fantastic Origin try-scoring record, including scoring a double in Game 2.

He also comes off a four-try effort for the Dolphins, so he’s flying, and we see no reason to leave him out of selections given the odds available.

Brian To’o is also worth including to score a try at $1.65. He was the standout player for the Blues in Game 2, scoring three tries on the wing. If the Blues win the game, we expect To’o to score at least one try. $1.65 is a good price from bookmakers for the prolific representative try scorer.

We went with the over in Game 2, but this could be a tight defensive game. Our final score prediction is 22-18, so under 43.5 points is worth including in picks. NSW and Queensland defences are tough to break, and that should be the case on Wednesday.

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Best Value Bet

Player of the Match – Tom Deardon @ $23.00

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Tom Deardon had a good impact on attack for the Maroons in Game 2, but his defence was terrible. His poor reads were the main reason why New South Wales made a big late comeback, but he’s due a bounce back performance.

A big game from Deardon could be enough to get the Maroons home, and we love the way he runs the ball. If he’s aggressive and takes the ball to the line, he could be the difference between winning and losing.

Getting $23 for Deardon to win Player of the Match is a good price with State of Origin odds, so snap up the value.

Editor In Chief

Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.

Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports.

Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.