NRL Preliminary Finals Expert Tips & Predictions

The NRL continues this week with the Preliminary Finals, where the final four teams battle for a spot in the NRL Grand Final next Sunday.

The first prelim final between the Melbourne Storm and Sydney Roosters plays on Friday, followed by Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks on Saturday.

Money is with the Storm and Panthers to embark on another NRL title tilt.

NRL Preliminary Finals Tips

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Friday 27/9/24

7:50pm Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters @ AAMI Park

The Storm couldn’t have been more impressive when beating the Sharks 37-10 two weeks ago before earning a week off.

They have been the best team throughout the year, and we’re not surprised by the short $1.30 odds to beat the Roosters at home on Friday night.

The Roosters were beaten 30-10 by the Panthers before rebounding last week with an effortless 40-16 win over the Manly Sea Eagles, which should give them plenty of confidence for the Preliminary Final. However, the Roosters aren’t on the same level as the Storm.

That was evident throughout most of the year, and although the Roosters looked good last week, the Sea Eagles aren’t close to being as good as Melbourne. The Roosters also have injury problems, which could be telling over 80 minutes against a tough defence.

We’re picking the Storm to win comfortably, so take the –9.5 line, which has been best-backed. The line could move to –10.5, so it’s important to jump on the single-figure line while it’s available. There is too much scoring power and defence with the Storm for the Roosters to keep up, and the difference between them is sizable.

Betting tip: Storm –9.5 @ $1.85

Storm by 12

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Saturday 28/9/24

7:50pm Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks @ Accor Stadium

Looking to make another NRL Grand Final are the Panthers, who are the $1.25 favourites to get past the Sharks on Saturday.

It hasn’t been a vintage year for the Panthers, but they showed their best form when pummeling the Roosters 30-10 in the first round of the NRL Finals. That was a massive performance, and Nathan Cleary looked excellent in his return.

They are a different team with Cleary at his best, and the Sharks don’t stand a chance of the Panthers are anywhere near their best.

Cronulla got off to a good start against the Cowboys last week before almost giving up a big lead. However, they held on for a 26-18 win, despite Nicho Hynes not doing much for his team on offence.

The Sharks need him to play at a much higher level just to be competitive, but this game is all about the Panthers, and it should be a one-sided game as bookmakers predict. The current line is –11.5, which has attracted the most attention since markets opened.

Winning a prelim final by 12 point or more isn’t easy, but the Panthers will suffocate the life out of the Sharks and win easily. They should put them to the sword quickly and never be headed, so lock in the current points spread line and expect a Storm vs Panthers final.

Betting tip: Panthers – 11.5 @ $1.87

Panthers by 14

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Editor In Chief

Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.

Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports.

Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.