UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker Predictions

UFC Fight Night 265: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena in Al Rayyan, Qatar – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC Fight Night 265 Predictions

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Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker Prediction

No.2 lightweight contender Arman Tsarukyan withdrew from a 155lb title shot on a days notice last December, and so now has to fight his way back to title contention against the No.7 ranked Dan Hooker, who is on a three-fight winning streak.

The 29-year-old Tsarukyan is a a fighter who truly mixes his martial arts, being well versed in all areas, in addition to having good athleticism and conditioning. He’s not the biggest physically, but he’s quick and sharp in the striking department with polished technique and nice footwork. He’s defensively sound too and while he’s not naturally heavy-handed he has become more of a finishing threat over time, with four of his last six UFC wins coming via strikes. Tsarukyan transitions seamlessly into takedown attempts and is an assured wrestler and scrambler. He does also have 5 submission wins on his record, though they came earlier in his career before he joined the UFC, so it’s not his main focus.

The 35-year-old Hooker’s career appeared to be on the slide a few years ago when he suffered four losses in five fights, with the latter three defeats all coming in the opening round. However, Hooker has since found his second wind, TKO’ing Claudio Puelles before chalking up two notable split-decision wins over Jalin Turner and Mateusz Gamrot. Hooker is tall for the division and will enjoy a 5″ height and 3.5″ reach advantage here. He’s a bit of a wildman and that’s reflected in his rugged, action-orientated striking style where all eight of his limbs have been successfully used to finish fights in the past. He’s the type of fighter that’s willing to take damage though, and so he tends to do so whether he wins or loses, and is now reaching an age where the toll that takes could become more evident. Hooker can also wrestle if required and does have a solid submission game, though in addition to three losses via strikes over the years he’s also had a further three defeats via submission.

Hooker is a spirited fighter who is not to be taken lightly, but technically and athletically Tsarukyan has the advantage, and I’d expect him to show that with a versatile mix of striking and ground work that leads him to a solid decision victory.

Arman Tsarukyan to win by decision

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Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry Prediction

Belal Muhammad lost his grip on the welterweight title last time out with a unanimous decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena. Now he gets back on the saddle against Ian Machado Garry, whose win over Carlos Prates in April took his UFC record to 9-1.

Muhammad exceeded expectations during his 11-fight unbeaten run given that he was never the biggest, slickest or hardest-hitting welterweight and isn’t a notable finisher, yet still slowly but surely fought all the way to the title. The 37-year-old Muhammad is a hard-worker who uses his dependable cardio and durability to push a hard pace, while having good fight IQ to make the most of his solid set of skill. He doesn’t have knockout power on the feet, but he does have sound fundamentals and smartly applies pressure. Meanwhile he’s strong in the clinch and has a sturdy wrestling game, but while he’s comfortable on the mat he only has one submission finish in his career. He’ll have been disappointed that he wasn’t able to make an impact with his wrestling against Maddelana last time out though, particularly given how easily Islam Makhachev dominated JDM in that department just last weekend, while his striking clearly came off second-best.

The 28-year-old Garry’s decision win over Prates earlier in the year is aging well given that the Brazilian has gone right back to knocking people out since then. It demonstrated that while Garry is a dangerous striker in his own right, he’s also a calculated, technical and composed one too who was able to manage distance well and disrupt his opponents rhythm with his higher volume, footwork and smart shot selection, while also mixing in some takedown attempts too. In previous fights Garry has also shown that he has respectable takedown defense and an ability to survive submission attempts, and at times even threaten with some of his own on the mat.

If Garry is able to stuff the majority of Muhammad’s takedowns and force this into a stand-up battle I do think he’ll come out on top as the bigger, technically sharper striker. However, I suspect Muhammad may well turn this fight into more of a grind, repeatedly working for clinch control and takedowns to stifle Garry’s offense and put him on the defensive for much of the fight. It won’t be pretty, but I’ll take Muhammad to win by decision.

Belal Muhammad to win by decision

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Volkan Oezdemir vs. Alonzo Menifield Prediction

Volkan Oezdemir comes in off a unanimous decision loss to Carlos Ulberg a year ago to fight Alonzo Menifield, who has earned back-to-back victories in 2025.

The 36-year-old Oezdemir was propelled to a title shot early in his UFC career after a couple of back-to-back 1st round KO victories, but he’s never been able to live up to that hype since then and his Octagon record now stands at an indifferent 8-7. Oezdemir is an experienced kickboxer with good power, but he rarely strays far from fundamentals techniques and so can be quite predictable. These days he’s also often happy just to fight at a steady pace and his volume can suffer as a result. Oezdemir has solid takedown defense, and though he doesn’t use it often he is capable of utilizing some offensive wrestling and grappling at times too.

The 38-year-old Menifield looked to be in a bad spot in 2024 after suffering back-to-back KO defeats, but a couple of decision wins have helped steady the ship. Menifield is a stocky, muscular fighter who likes to pressure his opponents with heavy hands and thudding kicks, while he’s also a brute on top via ground-and-pound, and can also work for the occasional choke. At this stage in his career though his cardio is becoming more of an issue late in fights, which has led to him fighting at a slower pace, while his defensive lapses are more of a concern now that his durability is under question.

Both fighters are somewhat similar at this stage of their careers in that they prefer a slower paced fight with predictable strike patterns and rely a lot on their power to make the difference. Menifield’s chin has become an issue though and so I think Oezdemir is more likely to land a finishing blow here at some stage in the first couple of rounds.

Volkan Oezdemir to win by TKO in Rd2

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Jack Hermansson vs. Myktybek Orolbai Prediction

Jack Hermansson has been stuck in a pattern of win-one, lose-one in the UFC for over six years, and is now looking to shake things up by dropping down to welterweight for his next fight against Myktybek Oralbai, who is 3-1 in the Octagon so far.

Going by his long-running trend the 37-year-old Hermansson should be due to get back in the win column on Saturday night, but the worry will be that his defeats have become more emphatic, including being KO’d in the 1st round by Gregory Rodrigues last time out. While time may be catching up with him durability wise, Hermansson does benefit from being an experienced and crafty veteran who will try to keep at a safe range with his long jab and low kicks, and can counter aggressive opponents by swooping under strikes for takedown opportunities. And on the mat he’s a solid threat via both submissions and ground-and-pound.

The 27-year-old Olalbai is a sturdy fighter with a well-equipped set of skills. On the feet he has solid boxing and respectable power, but his foundation comes from his very good wrestling ability, which is backed up by respectable grappling. And he’s proven to be a consistent finisher in his career so far, with 12 of his 14 victories coming inside the distance, split evenly between strikes and submission.

I’m not convinced Hermansson moving down a weight class at this stage in his career against an opponent a decade younger than him is going to work out. Instead, I like Orolbai in this fight as he’ll feel comfortable wherever the fight goes, including being more durable on the feet and stronger on the mat, leading him to a 2nd round TKO victory.

Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision

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Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Shamil Gaziev Prediction

Waldo Cortes-Acosta has stepped in on just a few days notice to replace Serghei Spivac here against Shamil Gaziev, who has gone 3-1 in the UFC.

Less than three weeks ago the 34-year-old Cortes-Acosta was in action against Ante Delija, suffering an early eye-poke that threatened to end the fight prematurely. However, he chose to fight on and was rewarded with a KO finish soon afterwards. Thankfully his eye injury hasn’t proven to be significant as he’s now able to take this late-replacement opportunity in the hopes of improving on a 3-1 record so far this year and 8-2 UFC run overall. A former baseball pro who turned to MMA a decade ago, Cortes-Acosta doesn’t have the deepest skill-set, but so far solid striking basics together with his athleticism and durability has served him well. As his last fight showed, Cortes-Acosta does have power, but often he’s happy to just keep things simple by working behind the jab with solid footwork to win rounds and emerge with a decision victory. Meanwhile he’s got enough of a ground game to prevent being a fish-out-of-water, but he’ll be looking to use his takedown defense to keep this fight on the feet.

The 35-year-old Gaziev’s career record stands at 14-1, but he’s yet to face much in the way of notable UFC opposition other than Jairzinho Rozenstruik, who handed him his first UFC loss via TKO back in March of last year. Gaziev is a stocky fighter who has proven to be a capable striker, and while he isn’t the quickest and can be hittable, he has heavy hands that have delivered 9 finishes from 14 career wins. Gaziev is a bit of an all-rounder as he can also work in the clinch, mix in some takedowns and has solid ground-and-pound to go with a sprinkling of submission finishes.

I’d put these two more in the category of solid than spectacular, and though Cortes-Acosta is coming in on extremely short notice I think his usual steady, jab-heavy approach could be enough to get the better of Gaziev on the scorecards here.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta to win by decision

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Alex Perez vs. Asu Almabayev Prediction

Alex Perez has suffered four losses in his last five Octagon appearances, but now faces Asu Almabayev, who has gone 5-1 in the UFC so far.

While the 33-year-old Perez’s recent record doesn’t look good, it’s worth acknowledging his defeats were against current and former flyweight champs Alexandre Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo, as well as the undefeated Muhammad Mokaev and Tatsuro Taira, while his solitary victory was by KO against Matheus Nicolau. Perez is a fighter who has been jinxed by injuries, and remarkably has withdrawn from 14 fight bookings in the past six years, as well as taking several lengthy layoffs. In fact, he is just returning here after almost 18 months out following a knee injury during his loss to Taira. When he is able to compete Perez is a pressure fighter who stays active with punches to the head and body, mixed in with low kicks, while he’ll also look for opportunities to bring his wrestling into play On the mat he has nice ground-and-pound and has seven submission wins, but he’s also been finished himself by submission on five occasions.

The 31-year-old Almabayev is an experienced fighter with a solid 22-3 record who has generally done well in the UFC so far. That being said, he did clearly come off second-best against Manel Kape in a TKO loss earlier this year that leaves some question marks about where his ceiling lies in the division. Almabayev is a well-rounded and well conditioned fighter who is a solidly capable striker, but is at his best when he’s using his relentless wrestling to get the better of opponents. His strength and fast entries enables him to get opponents down and control them on the mat, which he’ll often do to grind out a win, though he can be a submission threat too.

It’s hard to back Perez here due to his consistent injury woes and inactivity, especially against a solidly dependable opponent like Almabayev who can be competitive wherever the fight takes place. I think he’ll be able to get the better of the wrestling here and fight his way to a decision victory.

Asu Almabayev to win by decision

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UFC Fight Night 265 Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Bogdan Grad vs. Luke Riley
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Rafael Cerqueira
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Kyoji Horiguchi
Bekzat Almakhan vs. Aleksandre Topuria
Ismail Naurdiev vs. Ryan Loder
Nurullo Aliev vs. Shaqueme Rock
Nicolas Dalby vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev

MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

You can read more of Ross's work at MMAInsight.com.