UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot Predictions

UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs. Gamrot takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC Fight Night 261 Predictions

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Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot Prediction

Charles Oliveira was KO’d by Ilia Topuria last time out in an unsuccessful attempt to win back the lightweight title last time out, and now looks to get back on the saddle against Mateusz Gamrot, who is coming in on 10 days notice to replace the injured Rafael Fiziev.

It’s only been four months since the 35-year-old Oliveira was knocked out, which does feel a bit hasty. To be fair, prior to that it had been nearly eight years since ‘Do Bronxs’ was last finished via strikes, but it’s been quite common to see him get rocked at some stage in his fights, and he was finished four times in the early years of his long UFC run. Durability concerns aside, Oliveira is still a very good fighter who is renowned for his finishing abilities wherever the fight goes. He’s particularly deadly on the mat, where his high-level grappling is elevated by his innate creativity, tenacity and unwavering desire to end the fight inside the distance, leading to a record breaking 16 submission finishes in the Octagon. Some fighters would settle for just that, but Oliveira has also continued to hone his muay thai ability during his time in the UFC, and has reaped the rewards for that with some big T(KO) finishes over the years. Oliveira’s offensive mindset has drawbacks though as it’s left him open to being caught at times, both via strikes and submissions. He’s also heading into the 48th fight of an action-packed career, and the effects of that may well now be catching up with him.

While some fighters were reluctant to face Oliveira on less than two weeks notice, the 34-year-old Gamrot begged for the opportunity. Gamrot has won four of his last five fights, is 8-3 overall in the UFC, and holds victories over the likes of Arman Tsarukyan, Rafael Fiziev and Rafael dos Anjos, but hasn’t quite been able to push his way into the title picture yet. He sees a win over a high-profile opponent like Oliveira as his big chance, and with his well-rounded skills, work ethic and cardio he feels this short-notice opportunity is a calculated gamble worth taking. Part of that is also surely down to the fact that Gamrot is a sturdy wrestler with good takedowns and strong control on top, while also being an assured grappler too. As such he may feel he can snuff out Oliveira’s submission prowess by stifling him from top control. On the feet Gamrot certainly isn’t as potent or dynamic as Oliveira, but he has solid fundamentals and a good chin, and is well versed at using his strikes to close the distance and set up his takedowns.

Really there’s two contrasting styles at play here, with Oliveira rifling through his plethora of striking and submission options in search of a finish as soon as possible, while Gamrot is all about gradually wearing down his foe with pace, pressure and control, often until the final bell. So it’ll be intriguing to see which style wins out, and it feels like both have a good chance to do so. Trying to shut down Oliveira for five rounds is a tall order though, especially without the benefit of a full fight camp, so I’ll slightly leaning towards the Brazilian potentially being frustrated at times, but eventually finding his moment to seize on a fight-ending submission in the fourth round.

Charles Oliveira to win by Submission In Rd4

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Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson Prediction

Deiveson Figueiredo is coming off back-to-back defeats for the first time in his career as he now gets ready to fight Montel Jackson, who is on a six-fight winning streak.

Former flyweight champion Figueiredo proved he had what it takes to make an impact up at 135lbs when he racked up a trio of wins over divisional mainstays like Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt and Marlon Vera during his first 9 months there. However, his rise up the ranks has now been halted by a decision loss to former champ Petr Yan and then a TKO loss due to a knee injury against Cory Sandhagen in May. Now healed up, the 37-year-old looks to get back on track on Saturday night. Figueiredo is small for the division at 5ft 5″, but he’s fast and moves well, has commendable power for his size and shows consistent accuracy with his punches and kicks. He does tend to focus on his power strikes though and so his overall volume is on the low side. Figueiredo also has a solidly capable wrestling game and is comfortable scrambling and working for submission opportunities. The Brazilian remains durable too, with the only two times he’s been finished by TKO in his 30-fight career being due to a freak knee injury and a swollen eye.

The 33-year-old Jackson is in fine form heading into this one, though the caveat is that despite being competing in the UFC since 2018 he’s never faced too much in the way of notable competition. As such, despite stringing six wins together he’s still unranked, and so this is a huge step up in competition for him. It’s a strange situation as there’s a lot to like about Jackson, who is big for a bantamweight and holds the record for most knockdowns in the division’s history (11). It’s only more recently that he’s been converting that into finishes in the Octagon though, with two KO wins in his last three outings. He’ll enjoy a very significant 5″ height and 7.5″ reach advantage over Figueiredo on Saturday night, and likes to work behind a patient, technical boxing game, while he also has good speed and stays compact defensively. Jackson has never been finished in his career, but a point of concern is that there has been a couple of occasions where he’s been outwrestled.

Figueiredo may be starting to fade a little, but he is still a crafty veteran who would do well to use his well-rounded skills to try to test Jackson’s ground game here. I think a lot of this fight plays out on the feet though, and that will give the bigger, harder-hitting, but still composed Jackson time to shine on the big stage as he lands the more damaging blows to win by decision.

Montel Jackson to win by decision

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Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez Prediction

Vicente Luque has lost four of his last six fights and now goes up against Joel Alvarez, who steps in to replace Santiago Ponzinibbio on two weeks notice at a time when he’s riding a three-fight winning streak.

The 33-year-old Luque has never been quite the same since suffering a brain haemorrhage following a KO loss to Geoff Neal in 2022. Thankfully he was cleared to continue competing after a year out, but it’s tough to move past that psychologically as well as physically. It was a particularly cruel blow for an action-fighter like Luque who has leaned heavily on his toughness over the years to walk through strikes and land his own. Luque isn’t just a hard-hitting brawler though as he can be fairly technical on the feet and has an effective submission game on the mat too, but the fearlessness with which he used to fight has gone, and there’s a sense that he’s no longer willing to go to hell and back to get his hand raised.

The 32-year-old Alvarez is not only coming in on a couple of weeks notice, but he’s also moving up to 170lbs too. That won’t be an issue for him though as he was an unusually big lightweight at 6ft 3″, and that means even against Luque he’ll have a 4″ height and 1.5″ reach advantage. And Alvarez uses his long limbs well from range on the feet, and shortens them up effectively for punishing elbows and knees – the latter of which has helped him finish his last two opponents via KO and TKO. Over the course of his career it’s Alvarez’s grappling game that’s actually been his most trusted weapon though as he has no less than 17 submission finishes to his name, and combined with his stoppage via strikes that means all 22 of his career victories have come inside the distance.

Luque’s originally scheduled match-up against Ponzinibbio felt like the right kind of fight for him, facing a fellow veteran who has seen better days. Now in Alvarez he’s facing a younger, fresher lion who is on an upwards trajectory, and I don’t think that’s going to end well for him, with Alvarez landing big strikes for a second round TKO finish.

Joel Alvarez to win by TKO in Rd2

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Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto Prediction

Jhonata Diniz is 4-1 in the UFC so far and now goes up against the undefeated Mario Pinto, who won his promotional debut in March to go 10-0 in his career to date.

Jhonata Diniz is a good-sized heavyweight who competed in kickboxing for the promotions like Glory for well over a decade before turning his attention to MMA in 2022. The 34-year-old has put those years of stand-up experience to good use as he now holds a 9-1 record in the cage, including seven finishes via strikes. However, while he has solid technique and good speed on the feet, his late transition to MMA means that his ground game is relatively weak, which Marcin Tybura took advantage of when he beat him by ground-and-pound TKO a year ago.

The 27-year-old Pinto made his way to the UFC via the Contender Series, earning a first round KO victory there, before going on to knockout Austen Lane in his debut. Pinto is a big heavyweight who is in good shape physically, has solid striking fundamentals and has left no doubts about his punching power in recent fights, During his time on the regional scene he also showed he can also adopt a more patient approach though, winning a few fights by decision, including a five-rounder last year. That being said, he has proven to be quite hittable, has not faced much in the way of tough opposition yet, and we haven’t seen his ground game tested.

These two match up fairly well in terms of their size, skill-set and records so far. As such it could go either way here, but given Diniz many years of kickboxing experience and Pinto being less convincing defensively, I’ll take Diniz to win by TKO in Rd2.

Jhonata Diniz to win by TKO in Rd2

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Ricardo Ramos vs. Kaan Ofli Prediction

Ricardo Ramos is coming off three losses in his last four fights as he now gets ready to fight Kaan Ofli, who has yet to pick up a UFC win in his first appearances.

The 30-year-old Ramos’ poor form actually extends back over a five year period, having only won three times in eight trips to the Octagon during that period. Despite that Ramos has shown over the years that he is a threat offensively in more than one area. On the feet he’s not the most active, but has good muay thai striking and clinch-work, and was perhaps ahead of his time earlier in his UFC run when he notched up two spinning back elbow finishes – a move that’s become increasingly popular in the Octagon lately. Ramos has generally been more of a finishing threat on the mat though, with 7 of his 11 career finishes coming via submission. However, Ramos was submitted himself in back-to-back fights not so long ago, and has struggled with consistency and composure when facing quality opposition who can put him under pressure.

The 32-year-old Ofli made his way to the UFC via TUF 32, but was KO’d in the final by Mairon Santos and has since suffered a unanimous decision loss. Ofli likes to apply pressure with respectable striking, though he is quite hittable. However, he is able to use that forward momentum to seek out takedown opportunities and make use of his solid wrestling, while he also has a black belt in BJJ too that’s resulted in five submission finishes from 14 career victories. At this stage though Ofli has still to prove that he’s got what it takes to stick around in the UFC.

Both fighters here have their flaws, but though Ramos’ recent form is poor he has shown in the past that he can compete at this level, and with the Brazilian support behind him I think he’ll deliver the more impactful striking and show a willingness to mix things up on the mat too on his way to a decision win.

Ricardo Ramos to win by decision

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Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell Prediction

Lucas Almeida has lost three of his last four fights, but now gets a chance to open Saturday night’s show against Michael Aswell, who lost his promotional debut by unanimous decision.

Almeida is a tall featherweight who will have a 4″ height and 2″ reach advantage over Aswell. The 34-year-old an aggressive striker with good power who is happy to get into a firefight and has a strong finishing rate, with all but one of his 15 wins coming inside the distance. Nine of those have been via strikes, but he’s also proven to have a solid submission game too that’s won him several fights. He does have downsides though as he’s lacks speed, doesn’t evade strikes well and has had questionable cardio at times, while within the last couple of years he’s also suffered his first TKO and submission losses.

Aswell fought on the Contender Series last year after becoming Fury FC’s featherweight champion, but lost out to Bogdan Grad by split-decision. He did well enough that Dana White said he’d keep him in mind for a late replacement opportunity, and sure enough he eventually made his debut against Bolaji Oki on just three days notice up at 155lbs. It was a big ask and he lost by unanimous decision, but now he gets another chance, this time back down at 145lbs. Still only 25-years-old, Aswell is athletic, has respectable technique and power on the feet, can wrestle too and has yet to be finished in his 10-3 career.

There’s a bit of pressure on Aswell to prove he belongs, and he’ll have to do so on Almeida’s home soil, but he has the edge in youth, speed and athleticism and with the Brazilian being quite hittable I think Aswell fights his way to a decision win here.

Michael Aswell to win by decision

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UFC Fight Night 261 Prelims

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(Predicted winners in bold)

Jafel Filho vs. Clayton Carpenter
Vitor Petrino vs. Thomas Petersen
Beatriz Mesquita vs. Irina Alekseeva
Lucas Rocha vs. Stewart Nicoll
Valter Walker vs. Mohammed Usman
Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Luan Lacerda vs. Saimon Oliveira

MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

You can read more of Ross's work at MMAInsight.com.