UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Maddalena Predictions

UFC 315 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Canada and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC 315 Predictions

Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena Prediction

Welterweight champion Belal Muhammad will look to make his first successful defense of the title on Saturday night against Jack Della Maddalena, who has won all seven of his fights in the Octagon so far.

The 36-year-old Muhammad is not the type of fighter who immediately stands out from the crowd. He’s certainly not the biggest welterweight, or the fastest or hardest-hitting, and with only 6 stoppage wins in his 18 fight career he’s not the guy to turn to for a sizzling highlight-reel either. And yet here he is, the current champion and unbeaten in his last 11 UFC fights. There is a caveat to that as he did appear to be coming off second-best in his first fight with Leon Edwards back in 2021 before an eye-poke led to a no-contest, but he’s rarely been troubled since and he convincingly won their rematch last time out. Muhammad has solid if not spectacular striking technique, good clinch work and a strong wrestling game. It feels like the secret to his continual ability to exceed expectations though is in part due to his reliable cardio that enables him to push a hard pace from start to finish, as well as his dependable durability to fight through challenging moments, but perhaps crucially also his very good fight IQ, which enables him to smartly apply pressure, making good choices with regards to his shot selection and all-round strategic approach from round-to-round. It’s not a flashy style, but it’s proven to be very effective at winning out on the scorecards.

The 28-year-old Maddalena was in blistering form when he first arrived in the UFC back in 2022, making great use of his compact combination boxing to the head and body at close range to overwhelm opponents, leading to three 1st round TKO victories, and then an early submission finish too for good measure. That earned him a lot of respect and so his opponents nowadays are far less likely to just look to slug it out with him in the pocket. And he’s become more measured and patient with his offense in response, settling for back-to-back split-decision wins in 2023. Then came his toughest test to date last year against Gilbert Burns, who got the better of him on the mat and appeared to be en-route to a victory until late in the final round when Maddalena dropped him with a knee and then KO’d him with follow-up elbows on the mat. It wasn’t his finest performance, but he did show good scrambling ability on the mat against a talented grappler and it also served a reminder that he’s a dangerous striker who can finish fights. Maddalena has now finished 14 of his 17 career victories inside the distance, including 9 in the first round, but he has no experience of fighting beyond the third round.

Muhammad is excellent at pushing a hard pace over five rounds, so he’s really going to be looking to test Maddalena’s cardio on the feet here with his activity and pressure. He’ll also have a very significant wrestling advantage and will use that to get periods of control, while also keeping Maddelana on edge about when the next takedown might be coming during their striking exchanges. Maddalena may well land some good strikes along the way, but I think it’ll be the champion who will be win enough rounds to emerge with a decision victory.

Prediction: Belal Muhammad to win by decision.

All odds are with Picklebet Use Code: 'GOBET500'

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot Prediction

Valentina Shevchenko reclaimed the flyweight title from Alexa Grasso in their trilogy fight last time out and now faces a fresh challenger in Manon Fiorot, who is a perfect 7-0 in the UFC so far.

Shevchenko’s difficulties overcoming Alexa Grasso in their first two fights was somewhat surprising given her past accomplishments, though she had also struggled more than we’re used to seeing in a split-decision win over Natalia Silva beforehand. However, Shevchenko shook off talk that she was over-the-hill in the third fight with Grasso in September last year with a convincing unanimous decision victory that saw her lean more on her very good wrestling ability to secure takedowns and control the action on top, while also demonstrating savvy submission defense too. In the past Shevchenko has tended to focus more on her sturdy, seasoned and technically polished kickboxing ability to steadily pick apart many of her opponents at 125lbs, but at 37-years-old and with well over 20 years competing in combat sports it’s only natural that there are signs she may be slowing down a little. Nevertheless, she is still agile and accurate with her kicks, manages her cardio well, and a pivot towards using her wrestling and clinch-work more could be an important factor to help extend the longevity of her career.

At 35-years-old, Fiorot is at the stage where she could be moving beyond her prime, but there’s been no signs of that in her recent performances as she’s continued to pick up good wins over the likes of Rose Namajunas and Erin Blanchfield. She’s big for the flyweight division and likes to impose herself on her opponents with her very impactful boxing, respectable kicks and tough, battling qualities. That being said, while she had a good finishing record on the regional scene and started her UFC run with back-to-back TKO victories, she’s since strung together five decision wins in a row, including going 25 minutes in her last fight. That suggests she’s found a manageable balance with her intensity and high-volume striking. Fiorot has also shown strong takedown defense up to this point, but the champion may well be tempted to test her ability on the mat.

This is an intriguing fight, particularly on the feet where I think Fiorot can certainly give Shevchenko some problems at this stage in her career. Shevchenko is a smart fighter though who can adapt, and as we saw against Grasso, I think she will turn to her wrestling to be the difference-maker in this fight, which will help her to retain her title on the scorecards.

Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko to win by decision.

All odds are with Picklebet Use Code: 'GOBET500'

Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi Prediction

UFC legend Jose Aldo has gone 1-1 since returning to the Octagon last year and now takes on Aiemann Zahabi, who is on a five-fight winning streak and earned his biggest win to date over Pedro Munhoz last time out.

Despite being 38-years-old, Aldo has still been competitive in his two fights since his comeback, earning a solid unanimous decision victory over Jonathan Martinez and then only losing out by split-decision to Mario Bautista, who is now on a seven-fight winning streak. He might not be quite as fast as he was at his peak and he has to pace himself, but he still has crisp, technical and accurate boxing ability, good range management and his takedown defense is as impressive as ever. Sadly we still don’t see much of the punishing leg kicks that were such a prominent part of his game years ago, but against Martinez he did mix in a little offensive wrestling, which was nice to see.

Zahabi’s tendency to only fight once a year has slowed his momentum somewhat, but he did fight twice in 2024 and finally landed on the bantamweight rankings at No.15. He is getting up there in years at 37 though, which is quite late to be making a real push into the upper reaches of a division, particularly in the lighter weight classes. Still, Aeimann, who is the brother of famed coach Firas Zahabi, does seem to have been a late bloomer in the sport as he looks better now that he did five years ago. He’s able to maintain a better pace now from round to round and has a solid counter-striking game while being reasonably mindful of his defensive responsibilities. He’s not a great wrestler, but he does have respectable takedown defense and he can grapple too.

Zahabi’s put together a nice run in recent years that didn’t seem likely in the early years of his UFC run, but he’s never really stood out in the way that Aldo has, and I think that remains the case here. Aldo is the better striker of the two, and is still durable, so in what I expect to be a tactical battle rather than a firefight, it’s the Brazilian veteran who will emerge with a decision victory.

Prediction: Jose Aldo to win by decision.

All odds are with Picklebet Use Code: 'GOBET500'

Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva Prediction

Alexa Grasso lost her grip on the flyweight title at the conclusion of her trilogy of fights against Valentina Shevchenko back in September of last year and now returns to face Natalia Silva, whose 6-0 run in the UFC so far has taken her up to No.5 in the rankings.

Given that even at strawweight the 31-year-old Grasso seemed undersized and was experiencing mixed results in the Octagon, it’s impressive how well she took to life up at flyweight from 2020 onwards. That included an immediate five-fight winning streak, with her crowning achievement of course being that shock submission win over Shevchenko to win the belt. Grasso proved that was no fluke with a competitive split draw in the rematch, but she was convincingly outwrestled in their final clash, despite her tenacious attempts to threaten with submissions. Grasso has always been a skilled technical boxer with fast hands and footwork, and that’s served her well up at 125lbs, while she feels a bit more robust and impactful in this division, and she has still retained her very good cardio. However, despite her crafty grappling and steely determination she can still be overpowered on the mat at times by stronger wrestlers.

The 28-year-old Silva is a well-rounded fighter who, like Grasso, has very good speed and footwork. Silva’s boxing is good, but her kicking game is even better and has given her more of a cutting edge than Grasso in the Octagon, notching up both head kick and spinning back kick TKO finishes. Silva also has respectable wrestling and a solid BJJ game that led to frequent armbar submission wins on the regional scene, while issues with her own submission defense very early in her career appear to have now been ironed out.

This should be a great fight between two talented fighters. In the end I’m leaning towards Silva to edge out a win on the scorecards due to being the physically stronger fighter with a more impactful kicking game and better wrestling, but she’ll have to fight hard for her victory.

Prediction: Natalia Silva to win by decision.

All odds are with Picklebet Use Code: 'GOBET500'

Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec Prediction

Benoit Saint Denis comes off back-to-back losses to fight a late replacement fighter in Kyle Prepolec, who accepted this opportunity to return to the UFC on less than a week’s notice after Joel Alvarez withdrew due to an injury.

Known as ‘The God Of War’, the 29-year-old Saint Denis built a reputation as a tough-as-nails, action-orientated finisher during his five-fight winning streak in the Octagon between 2022-2023. Previously a member of the French special forces, Denis has an aggressive style, applying pressure with aggressive, high-volume offense, serving up hard-hitting punches and kicks. Three of his UFC finishes have come via strikes, but the other two have been courtesy of his solid submission game, which was typically his main route to victory earlier in his career. And he is able to use his offensive wrestling to link those two aspects of his game together, making him a threat wherever the fight goes. However, while BSD was previously also known for his durability that made up for the fact that he can be quite hittable, being KO’d and then TKO’d in his past two fights has certainly removed that aura of invincibility.

The 35-year-old Prepolec previously had a brief stint in the UFC back in 2019, suffering back-to-back defeats on UFC Fight Night cards in Canada before being released. He then returned to the Canadian regional scene, where he’s gone 4-1, including winning his last three fights via strikes in the first round, taking his overall career record to 18-8. Prepolec is decent enough striker and does provide a finishing threat with his punches, kicks and occasional spinning attack, and he’s also never been stopped via strikes. There’s a big difference between beating up regional fighters and doing so in the Octagon however, and meanwhile Prepolec’s takedown defense is also weak and he’s not got a whole lot to offer on the mat.

This match-up is a bit of a gift for Saint Denis, giving him a good chance to get back to winning ways in a convincing manner. I could opt to just win the striking battle and regain his confidence there, but he’ll have an easier avenue to victory by just taking Prepolec down and finishing him with either ground-and-pound or submission. I’ll say he takes the latter option and forces a tap-out before the end of the opening round.

Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis to win by submission in Rd1.

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UFC 315 Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke
Jéssica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cuțelaba
Navajo Stirling vs. Ivan Erslan
Marc-André Barriault vs. Bruno Silva
Daniel Santos vs. Lee Jeong-yeong
Brad Katona vs. Bekzat Almakhan

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MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

You can read more of Ross's work at MMAInsight.com.