UFC On ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira Predictions

UFC On ESPN 70: Lewis vs. Teixeira takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC On ESPN 70 Predictions

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Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira Prediction

Derrick Lewis comes in off a 3rd round TKO victory against Rodrigo Nascimento over a year ago to headline Saturday night’s show, where he’ll be going up against the undefeated Tallison Teixeira, who earned a swift TKO victory in his UFC debut back in February.

The 40-year-old Lewis has put together a decidedly mixed bag of results over the past four years, going 3-5, including being stopped by strikes three times and submitted once. However, ‘The Black Beast’ still retains the famous punching power that’s led to him being the current record for most knockout wins in UFC history (15). He still has that knack for being able to get into striking range quicker than you’d expect for a man of his size, and despite always having had suspect cardio he can still summon up a KO finish out of nowhere, even deep into a fight. That being said, while that continues to make him dangerous regardless of who he’s facing, the general trend now is that he’s only managing to stop his less notable opponents like Nascimento, Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Chris Daukus.

At 25-years-old, Teixeira is still very young by heavyweight standards, and he has great physical tools to work with given that he’s 6ft 7″ tall and with an 83″ reach, affording him an extra 4″ in both height and reach over Lewis on Saturday night. Like Lewis he’s also proven to be a big threat on the feet, with his perfect 8-0 career record so far including seven finishes via strike and one by submission, all in the first round. While that’s impressive, there is still a question mark as to how he’ll fare against higher level opposition, and what happens when hee doesn’t get the early finish he’s become accustomed to. Still, Teixiera has a good arsenal of strikes, mixing in knees and elbows along with his lengthy punches and kicks, and he his a black belt in BJJ too, which he demonstrated in his pro-debut when he submitted his opponent with an inverted triangle armbar. A potential concern for Teixeira though is that in addition to his long and lean build he also tends to leave his chin exposed and has proven to be quite hittable, though he’s not paid the price for that so far.

This is a very big step-up in competition for Teixeira, but his youth, size and dangerous striking could certainly be problematic for an aging version of Lewis with declining durability. That being said, I think there’s a chance this could be too much too soon for Teixeira, as if he hasn’t shored up his striking defense then it’s only going to take one big connection from Lewis to topple him, and so I’m taking Lewis to win by KO in the first round.

Derrick Lewis to win by KO In Rd1

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Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim Prediction

Stephen Thompson has only won once in his last five Octagon appearances as he now prepares to take on Gabriel Bonfim, who comes in off back-to-back wins, taking his career record to 17-1.

Nicknamed ‘Wonderboy’, the reality is that Thompson is actually now 42-years-old and is coming off a losing slump that includes being KO’d by Joaquin Buckley last time out. Thompson’s elite-level striking has always been built on using his speed, timing and reflexes, and that’s hard to retain this deep into a very extensive combat sports career that started in karate tournaments back in the late 1990’s. In all fairness though, Thompson is a great example of a fighter who has withstood the test of time better than most as he does still move well and continues to have impressive dexterity to his kicking game, and generally demonstrates textbook technique and distance management. However, he’s not quite as sharp at steering clear of strikes coming his way anymore, and his takedown defense has diminished, which presents opportunities for other fighters still at the top of their game to exploit.

The 27-year-old Bonfim is a very well-rounded fighter who has proven to be particularly dangerous on the mat, with 13 of his 17 career wins coming via submission. His choke series in particular is dialled-in, and he operates well in scrambles too, while also having the wrestling ability to get the fight to the mat in the first place. And meanwhile on the feet he’s also a well-versed kickboxer who can fight at a high-tempo and mixes up his strikes well with good speed. He did run out of steam in the only loss of his career against Nicolas Dalby a couple of years, but that felt like a bit of an anomaly as he threw everything but the kitchen sink at his uncommonly durable foe in that fight, but couldn’t quite find a finish and paid the price in the end. It’s no surprise that he’s got straight back to winning ways after that though.

This feels like it could be the kind of fight that Thompson won’t relish at this twilight stage in his career as though he’ll have a 5″ reach advantage to work with, Bonfim’s forward pressure and advantages in wrestling and grappling suggests the fight is likely to be fought at closer quarters than he’d like and lead him to focus more on fending off takedowns than unleashing his strikes on the outside. In the end I think Bonfim will be able to force the fight to the mat and lock in a 2nd round submission finish.

Gabriel Bonfim to win by Submission In Rd2

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Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia Prediction

Calvin Kattar is winless in his last four fights and now attempts to dig himself out of that hole when he fights Steve Garcia, who by way of contrast is on a five-fight winning streak.

Kattar’s losing slump doesn’t seem quite so bad when you consider he was going up against the likes of Josh Emmett, Arnold Allen, Aljamain Sterling and the in-form Youssef Zalal, while also having to contend with an 18-month layoff due to an ACL injury. Still, he is now in danger of being swept out of the 145lb rankings entirely, and so at 37-years-old he now finds himself having to prove he’ still got what it takes. Kattar does remain a tough fighter though with good boxing ability, solid power and has repeatedly shown an ability to maintain a good pace even over 25 minutes if required. Despite the losses starting to mount up Kattar’s still only been finished once by strikes and once by submission in his career, although he did take a horrendous beating in his five round beating against Max Holloway a few years ago. Meanwhile, Kattar also has respectable takedown defense, but he’s never been much of a threat on the mat.

The 33-year-old Garcia is tall for the weight class at 6ft, but on this occasion that only gives him an extra inch in height and reach over Kattar, who also has fought up at 155lbs in the past. Garcia is an aggressive striker with a high-volume, yet accurate style, who likes to throw everything into his strikes, and has nasty ground-and-pound too. That approach has paid off for him throughout his career so far as 14 of his 17 career wins having come via strikes, and that includes stopping all five of his opponents during his current UFC winning streak. Garcia can be outwrestled at times though, and while he’s in fine form at the moment, he was beaten a couple of times near the start of his UFC run, as well as towards the end of his time with Bellator many years ago.

There could well be fireworks here as both men are more than willing to trade heavy leather. Kattar is the cleaner striker of the two, which could pay dividends, and he’s traditionally had an excellent chin too, but I do think he’s at that age after a lot of wars where his durability is likely to start decreasing, and so I’ll take Garcia’s sustained offense to deliver a 2nd round TKO finish here.

Steve Garcia to win by TKO in Rd2

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Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charriere Prediction

Both Tennessee’s own Nate Landwehr and Morgan Charriere are coming into this bout having lost two of their last three fights in the promotion.

The 37-year-old Landwehr has become a bit of a cult favorite among fans for his action-orientated style, often unleashing his high-volume offense with reckless abandon, relying on his heart and toughness to eat strikes, while landing more of his own. That can make for an unrefined but entertaining watch, but early in his UFC run it also resulted in him being finished twice in the first round. Unexpectedly, Landwehr then managed to put together a nice three-fight winning streak, showing off some submission chops along the way, but his form has dipped again since and he’s now coming off a TKO loss late last year.

The 29-year-old Charriere has a good mix of skills as he’s an assured kickboxer, has a black belt in judo and can grapple too. Charriere prefers to keep the action upright though, and when he engages he’s fast, accurate and can deliver agile kicks to all levels to compliment his punching power. Both of ‘The Last Pirate’s’ UFC wins have come by KO, and he has 12 wins by strikes overall from 20 career wins. However, the drawback is that Charriere can be overly patient waiting on the perfect moment to strike, and as a result he does lose rounds due to a lack of activity. As such, while he’s only ever lost once via strikes and never by submission, 10 of his 11 career defeats have come via decision.

There’s a stark contrast in style here then, with Landwehr being a high-volume brawler, while Charriere is a cautious, but still dangerous sniper. As such there’s certainly room for Landwehr to have success as he’ll certainly be able to outland his opponent here, and his toughness and determination might enable him to take the fight to the scorecards. However, given his age, coming off a TKO loss and being so hittable, I do feel it’s more likely that Charriere finds the openings he needs to land punishing counters that he eventually can’t recover from. I’ll take Charriere to win by TKO in the second round.

Morgan Charriere to win by TKO In Rd2

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Vitor Petrino vs. Austen Lane Prediction

Vitor Petrino is coming off the first two losses of his career as he now steps up to heavyweight to fight Austen Lane, who has only won once in his five Octagon appearances so far.

The 27-year-old Petrino’s UFC run got off to a good start with four wins in a row, taking his career record to 10-0 by March of last year. However, a quick submission loss to Anthony Smith followed by a 3rd round KO loss against Dustin Jacoby has pumped the brakes on his progress at 205lbs, and now he fancies his chances at heavyweight instead. Petrino had a bit of a rough-and-ready approach when he first joined the UFC, but his good power and knack for landing on the counter got him off to a good start, and he’s shown that he can mix in takedowns too, and has heavy ground-and-pound on top. He can tend to lean on power and strength more than clean technique though and his cardio has become compromised at times as a result, so it’ll be interesting to see how he copes with more weight on his muscular frame up a division.

The 37-year-old Lane’s recent form has been troubling as he’s now been KO’d three times in his last four fights, not to mention the fact that as a former bit-part NFL player he was likely no stranger to concussions even before his MMA career began. Lane still remains a big, athletic fighter though who will have a 4″ height and 3″ reach advantage over Petrino. Lane’s MMA skill-set does tend to lean on his physicality and power, which has led to 11 finishes via strikes from 13 career wins, but at the same time his defense his suspect and he doesn’t have a whole lot to offer on the mat, while his durability is clearly now a major concern.

While he doesn’t have the most refined skill-set, Petrino is still substantially better than Lane technically, both on the feet and on the mat, and against someone who already has a shaky chin I’d expect his punching power will translate enough at heavyweight to deliver a KO finish here in the first round.

Vitor Petrino to win by KO in Rd1

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Junior Taffa vs. Tuco Tokkos Prediction

Junior Tafa won his last fight at heavyweight by TKO, but has now dropped down to 205lbs for his next fight against Tuco Tokkos, who has lost both his fights in the promotion so far.

The 28-year-old Tafa only mustered a 2-3 run in the UFC’s heavyweight division, so he’s hoping he’ll fare better down at light-heavyweight, and to his credit, judging on recent training photos he does appear to have got himself in good shape ahead of his divisional debut. Tafa is a former Glory kickboxer who had a mixed bag of results their, going 3-4 in that promotion, though he did have better success on the regional circuit. For all that he’s not the most clean technical striker, but he’s not just a brawler either and is equipped with big punching power and heavy leg kicks. Given his background it’s perhaps not surprising that he doesn’t have much of a ground game though.

The 35-year-old Tokkos has been able to enjoy some success in smaller promotions, but a previous stint in Bellator back in 2019-2020 saw him go 0-2, and he’s now mirrored that record in the UFC so far, while he also was KO’d on the Road To UFC: Singapore series back in 2022 before finally making it to the promotion properly. Tokkos is an aggressive fighter who welcomes a brawl, but his commitment to power punches comes at the expense of his defense, and that carelessness makes him quite hittable. Tokkos does also have a couple of submission wins on his record, but was also tapped out fairly swiftly by Oumar Sy a couple of fights ago.

Neither fighter is really making much of an impact in the UFC up to this point, but 205lbs does look like it could be a decent fit for Tafa, and it seems like he has the better striking here, taking him to a 2nd round TKO finish.

Junior Tafa to win by TKO In Rd2

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UFC On ESPN 70 Prelims

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(Predicted winners in bold)
Max Griffin vs. Chris Curtis
Jake Matthews vs. Chidi Njokuani
Lauren Murphy vs. Eduarda Moura
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Valter Walker
Mitch Ramirez vs. Mike Davis
Fatima Kline vs. Melissa Martinez

MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

You can read more of Ross's work at MMAInsight.com.