UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan Predictions

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC 323 Predictions

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Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan Prediction

Merab Dvalishvili beat Petr Yan by unanimous decision in March of 2023 prior to becoming champion, and now is set to fight him again as he looks to make his 4th consecutive defense of the title.

Dvalishvili has been so dominant at 135lbs during his 14-fight winning streak that he’s now looking to lap the field, starting with beating Sean O’Malley for a second time after seizing the title from him last year. Now he’ll go up against Yan for a second time after having dominated him in their first clash in typical fashion by relentlessly working for takedown attempts to foil his opponent’s attempts to get his striking game going. Merab has picked up five wins since then, and the overwhelming body of evidence suggests that he’s not going to be making any dramatic switches in strategy on Saturday night given how well plan A continues to go for him. And though he’s 34-years-old now, there’s no signs yet of ‘The Machine’s’ stellar cardio and durability diminishing, enabling him to push the pace like nobody else can for five rounds.

Yan went up against Dvalishvili at a time when the former champion was having an uncharacteristic slump in form, having gone into it with three losses in his previous four fights. In fairness though his losses had come against top-flight opponents though in Aljamain Sterling (x2) and Sean O’Malley and were closely contested. On the other hand, the loss to Merab was one-sided, though he’s since blamed that on a hand injury that hindered his ability to train. Some were sceptical about that, but the 32-year-old has bounced back since, going on a three-fight winning streak to earn this rematch. Yan is certainly worthy of another chance as he’s a skilled, well-rounded fighter who is the superior striker in this match-up with his high-level technical boxing, and has the accuracy to find the holes in the champion’s defense when he’s surging in for his takedown attempts. Yan works best as a combination striker though, which is difficult to execute when given such little time to operate. Yan is also a solid wrestler with good takedown defense, but that wasn’t enough for him the last time they met, and given that even higher calibre players on the mat have struggled against Merab, he’s going to need to do something special this time around to alter the outcome.

So Yan is a worthy challenger, but his route to victory is narrow and so it’s hard to see the result ending in anything other than another unanimous decision victory for Dvalishvili.

Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision

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Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van Prediction

Reigning flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja will be looking for his 5th successful title defense when he goes up against Joshua Van, who has managed to compiled a five-fight winning streak in less than a year.

Pantoja is firmly entrenched at the top of the 125lb division after having now beaten Brandon Moreno three times, Brandon Royval and Kai Kara-France twice as well as fending off other highly rated contenders like Kai Asakura, Steve Erceg and Manel Kape. The 35-year-old might not have the cleanest technical striker, but he’s a battle-hardened warrior who always looks to push a hard pace and pressure his opponent with his aggressive boxing combinations, backed up by an extremely durable chin. And his striking is further elevated by his takedown threat as he does a good job timing his entries to execute takedowns and bring into play his very assured grappling game. That often leads to him taking the back and threatening with his trusty rear-naked choke, and he has 12 submission finishes in total to show for it. There are times when Pantoja’s high pace seems to be taking a toll on him, but to his credit he has a knack for fighting on regardless and has never been finished.

The 24-year-old Van presents a fresh challenge for Pantoja, and he’s certainly earned the opportunity after managing to amass an 8-1 record in the UFC in just two-and-a-half years. He’s already a talented, athletic fighter for his age, and he’s still improving from fight-to-fight, which bodes well for his future regardless of how things go on Saturday night. He’ll feel he can make an impact here though as he’s a skilled boxer whose high-volume striking only seems to ramp up in intensity the longer the fight goes, while still maintaining good speed and accuracy. Van has also shown some promising signs of being able to wrestle too, but his ground game isn’t as developed as his stand-up, so he’ll be hoping his solid takedown defense can keep this fight where he wants it.

Van is over a decade younger than Pantoja and certainly matches up well with him in the striking department, but I think the champions experience and stronger ground game will lead him to getting the challenger down and controlling him sooner rather than later on his way to a second round submission finish.

Alexandre Pantoja to win by submission in Rd2

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Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira Prediction

Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno comes in off back-to-back victories to fight Tatsuro Taira, who has gone 7-1 in the Octagon so far.

The 31-year-old Moreno is in an awkward spot in the division as things stand given that he’s already lost to current champ Pantoja on three occasions, but he’s not given up hope of earning another title shot if he continues to beat everyone else that comes his way. And that’s certainly possible as he’s still a very well-rounded, hard-working and durable fighter who has looked good in his recent wins over Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg. Moreno is a robust boxer who operates at a high pace and applies pressure well behind a good jab, is comfortable trading in the pocket or seeking out counters, and has respectable power. Moreno mixes his martial arts well too as he will comfortably switch to takedowns and has good grappling ability that has led him to 11 submission wins in 23 career fights, while also never having been finished in his career.

A former Shooto champion, Taira has extended his career record to 17-1 during his time in the Octagon, and he’s still only 25-years-old. Taira is a clean technical striker from range with good accuracy and athleticism, but that tends to mean he prefers to pick his shots rather than staying consistently active. He does offer up a capable takedown threat too and is a good grappler who likes to scramble and has a proven finishing threat, having stopped 8 fights via submission, including three during his time in the UFC.

This is a really good fight and a hard one to call. Moreno has a lot of miles on the clock for a 31-year-old, while Taira is heading towards his prime with a good skill-set that’s still evolving. Still, I think Moreno can find success here by fighting at close quarters and turning this into the kind of hard fought battle that he’s well built for, while also having the better control on the mat. So after three closely fought rounds I’ll take Moreno to narrowly emerge with a decision victory.

Brandon Moreno to win by decision

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Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott Prediction

Former two-division champion Henry Cejudo plans to retire from the sport after one last fight against rising star Payton Talbott, who is 4-1 in the promotion so far.

Cejudo’s decision to retire from the sport in 2020 while still a double champion, only to then make a comeback three years later hasn’t worked out for him as he’s lost all three of his fights since his return. To be fair the 38-year-old has still fought solidly, but it’s not been enough to get the better of top-tier competition in Aljamain Sterling, Merab Dvalishvili and Song Yadong. Cejudo is a fighter with a wealth of experience though, having also been an Olympic wrestling medalist dating back to 2008, and together with his good fight IQ and continued solid durability it means he’s still a challenging opponent to go up against. Cejudo is a short, stocky fighter who might not be as quick as he once was, but still has respectable speed to close the distance and land punches with solid power, while he’ll also look to dish out low kicks too. While he does seem to relish striking, he will still seek out opportunities to make use of his wrestling, though perhaps not as much as he used to as his gas tank is a bit more limited now. He has versatiles takedowns and as you’d expect he has good control on top, but it’s worth noting he’s never finished a fight by submission in his career.

The 27-year-old Talbott was a hotly-tipped prospect when he first arrived in the UFC via the Contender Series thanks to his impressive striking prowess. A tall, lean bantamweight, Talbot will have a sizeable 6″ height and 6.5″ reach advantage over Cejudo on Saturday night, and he has the tools to make the most of that. Talbott uses his very good cardio to fight at a frenetic pace and dishes out incredibly high numbers in terms of his striking volume. And despite that he’s still able to remain accurate and diverse, mixing in swift boxing combinations with kicks and the occasional spinning attacks. He doesn’t have the kind of power that’s going to lead to a lot of first round finishes, but it has proven to be very successful at overwhelming opponents over time, leading to 7 of his 10 wins coming via strikes. Raoni Barcelos was able to match Talbott’s intensity though, while exploiting holes in his ground game to beat him on the mat, but he’s since rebounded from that and is already showing improved takedown defense.

Cejudo certainly has a chance here if he commits fully to his wrestling, but he does like to test himself on the feet, and I think Talbott’s size, speed, volume and relentless pace will cause him a lot of problems in that regard. I’ll say Cejudo survives to the final bell, but Talbott emerges with his hand raised.

Payton Talbott to win by decision

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Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov Prediction

Former UFC light-heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz is coming in off back-to-back defeats and now goes up against Bogdan Guskov, who is on a four-fight winning streak.

Blachowicz is 42-years-old and not so long ago had to take the best part of two years off due to shoulder surgeries, so every time he fights now raises questions about whether it will be his last. Blachowicz still has the competitive urge though, and he’s not at the stage yet where he’s getting blown out of the water, having gone the distance with Alex Pereira and Carlos Ulberg in his last two bouts. That being said, his fights have tended to be quite uneventful of late, being a bit more tentative with his offense, though he is still a technically sound striker with solid boxing, impactful kicks and a good chin for his age. Blachowicz has also proven to be a solid wrestler over the years with a capable grappling game too when he chooses to use it.

The 33-year-old Guskov didn’t get off to the best of starts in the UFC, suffering a 1st round submission loss to Volkan Oezdemir in his 2023 debut, but he’s since put together four finishes in a row, book-ended by 1st round KO victories. There’s not a whole lot of finesse to Guskov’s fairly basic striking game, but he’s certainly been effective with it and has big punching power that’s led him to 15 finishes via strikes from 18 career wins. And it should also be noted his other three wins came inside the distance too via submission, though he’s very unconvincing defensively on the mat.

Blachowicz is the better striker technically here and has a reach advantage too that will help him to keep Guskov at bay, while he’s also certainly more capable on the mat too if he chooses to go there. The former champ’s age is a big concern, but his chin isn’t yet compromised, so I think he can survive Guskov’s early threat and then lull him into a steady-paced fight that he can get the better of to win on points.

Jan Blachowicz to win by decision

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UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan Prelims

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(Predicted winners in bold)

Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres
Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan
Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Farès Ziam
Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira
Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner
Iwo Baraniewski vs. İbo Aslan
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trócoli
Muhammad Naimov vs. Mairon Santos

MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

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