UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 Predictions

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC 316 Predictions

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley Prediction

Coming off his first successful defense of the bantamweight title, Merab Dvalishvili now gets set for a rematch with the fighter he took the belt from in the first place, Sean O’Malley, who has been waiting for this opportunity since their first clash last September.

The 34-year-old Dvalishvili’s wrestle-heavy approach is well established at this stage and was successfully implemented in the first fight between these two, managing to bring O’Malley down in each of the five rounds. In more detail, Dvalishvili landed 6 of his 15 takedown attempts and had 10 minute of control time overall. Generally speaking Dvalishvili isn’t the best takedown specialist or most effective when on top, but he’s good enough that when combined with his incredible cardio and unparalleled persistence he does have a knack of getting his fair share of takedowns regardless of who he goes up against. Meanwhile, on the feet Dvalishvili’s style hasn’t evolved much technically, and in the first fight with ‘Suga’ he relied mostly on leg kicks to land scoring strikes, but he still constantly pushes the pace in a way that’s hard to keep up with, while also being very durable. Whether on the feet or on the mat though, Dvalishvili continues to offer very little in the way of a finishing threat.

Things didn’t go the way O’Malley would have hoped in their first fight, but it wasn’t a complete wash-out. He did fend off some takedowns, was able to get back to his feet occasionally, and as such found moments to let his strikes go at times. And O’Malley does have the kind of clinical striking technique, timing, speed and accuracy that makes him better equipped than most to take advantage of those limited opportunities. And in the final round O’Malley’s front kicks to the body did seem to be visibly wearing on Dvalishvili, which is a rare sight and will be something he may well look for again this time around. O’Malley claims a hip injury hindered his training leading into their previous fight, but has been able to work more extensively on his takedown defense this time around, so it’ll be interesting to see if that pays off on the night.

O’Malley didn’t run out of steam in their first fight, so he’ll have another full 25 minutes to try to solve the Merab puzzle and land the killer blow he needs this time around. With his striking potency and skill that’s possible, but given how hard-headed Dvalishvili is, it feels like it’s not the most likely outcome. Even if he is hurt, Dvalishvili’s instinctive takedowns should hand him a get-out-of-jail-free card, and I expect him to grind his way to another decision win here.

Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision

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Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison Prediction

Julianna Pena beat Raquel Pennington in a vacant bantamweight title fight last October to become the division’s champion for the second time in her career, and now she’ll look to defend it against Kayla Harrison, who has gone 2-0 in the promotion so far.

The 35-year-old Pena has been fighting in the UFC for the best part of 12 years, yet she’s actually only fought 11 times in the Octagon. She’s packed some big moments into her career though, including winning TUF 18 back in 2013, and most famously beating Amanda Nunes against-the-odds by 2nd round submission in 2021 to win the title. Of course Nunes would rebound from that lackluster performance to win the rematch the following year, and Pena has only had that one fight since to reclaim the vacant belt when her rival retired. Despite her lengthy absences from competing there’s not a clear sense of progression in Pena’s game to suggest she’s been hard at work improving her skill-set. On the feet she still tends to rely more on toughness and tenacity rather than refined technique, preferring to just apply forward pressure while showing a willingness to eat shots to land her own. Pena’s strength helps her bully opponents in the clinch though and she does have good wrestling to work for takedowns. And she also has proven submission ability and good ground-and-pound, but she can be put on her back and has been submitted herself twice during her time in the UFC.

The 34-year-old Harrison was already a well-known fighter before she ever arrived in the UFC, thanks to having been a former two-time Olympic Judo gold medalist, while also having previously found success in MMA by winning PFL’s $1 million lightweight tournament twice. Harrison has since proven she can replicate that form in the UFC with back-to-back wins over Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira last year. While she and Pena are roughly the same height and reach, there’s no doubt that Harrison is the naturally bigger of the two and it’s no mean feat that she’s been able to cut down to 135lbs, having previously fought two divisions above. That, together with her physical strength and judo ability gives her a significant advantage on fight night, ensuring she’s strong in the clinch and provides a serious takedown threat, while she also has a capable submission game to go with her ground-and-pound once on top. However, her striking ability is still a work-in-progress and lacks fluidity, and though she convincingly beat former champ Holm in her UFC debut, she struggled to dominate Vieira last time out.

The stubbornly tough and determined Pena will do her best to force Harrison into a dog fight, and if she can make it to the later rounds it will be interesting to see how the challenger’s cardio holds up against that after a tough weight cut. I suspect by that stage Harrison will have already have been able to win rounds though by getting the better of the clinch battle, landing some takedowns and roughing up the champion enough to ensure she emerges with a decision win.

Kayla Harrison to win by decision

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Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer Prediction

This fight was originally scheduled to take place back in March but was cancelled on fight day due to Pyfer being ill, so we’ll run back our original prediction here.

Kelvin Gastelum won his only fight last year, a feat he’d only managed twice in his previous eight Octagon appearances. Next he’ll take on Joe Pyfer, who is 4-1 in the UFC so far and is coming off a KO win.

The 33-year-old Gastelum had tried to switch back down to welterweight in his last couple of fights, but suffered a dominant loss to Sean Brady and then in a flashback to yesteryear failed to make weight for his next fight against Daniel Rodriguez, which forced him back up to 185lbs. And middleweight has always been a bit of an awkward fit for him as while he’s stockily built he’s short and has a limited wingspan, resulting in a 5″ reach and 4″ reach disadvantage in this particular match-up. That being said, he’s proven to be very durable, and has still never been finished by strikes. Gastelum is also quite light on his feet, and while he’s not been a finisher in the division he does have respectable power. He also has good hand-speed, and that’s been important to help catch his opponents off-guard as otherwise his striking tends to stick to the fundamentals without too much in the way of creative flair.

Like Gastelum, the 28-year-old Pyfer isn’t the flashiest striker, but he has solid boxing and benefits from having big power in his hands that’s led to 9 finishes via strikes from 13 career victories, including an 85 second knockout of Marc Andre Barriault last time out. Pyfer also has solid offensive wrestling when he chooses to use it, and can grapple, which helped him pick up a submission win in the UFC.

Gastelum is tough as old boots, so it’s possible he might be able to withstand the larger, harder-hitting Pyfer’s punching power. That being said, he still struggles to find any consistency at 185lbs and isn’t getting any younger, so I think Pyfer will have the bigger moments in the striking exchanges here and emerge with a decision victory.

Joe Pyfer to win by decision

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Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix Prediction

Mario Bautista comes in off a seven-fight winning streak that includes his latest split-decision win over Jose Aldo to fight the debuting Patchy Mix, who was previously Bellator’s bantamweight champion and holds a 20-1 career record.

The 31-year-old Bautista played more of a spoiler role last time out against Aldo, looking to shut down his striking with frequent clinch-work and takedown attempts against the cage, which didn’t lead to much in the way of action, but did earn him a narrow win. In general though Bautista is a well-rounded, industrious fighter who can rely on his cardio to help him apply pressure from start to finish, both on the feet and on the mat. With just 3 finishes via strikes from 15 career victories Bautista isn’t a particularly heavy hitter, but he has solid technique and stays active offensively with respectable punches and kicks. Bautista can also use his wrestling to bring the fight to the mat, where his submission game has proven more fruitful, including three finishes in a row between 2022-2023 in the UFC. On the other hand, Buatista’s own takedown defense isn’t bullet-proof.

The 31-year-old Mix may be new to the Octagon, but he’s an experienced fighter who has beaten respected opponents in Bellator, including some with prior UFC experience like Sergio Pettis (to win the Bellator 135lb title) and Kyoji Horiguchi, so he’s an exciting addition to the 135lb ranks. Mix is a good athlete with solid striking fundamentals, but it’s other aspects of his game that really shine. He’s a very good wrestler and has proven to be an excellent grappler too with assured control on top, slick back takes and he has a versatile submission arsenal that’s resulted in 13 stoppage wins. He’s also well-conditioned enough that his submission threat remains right the way through to the dying stages of his fights.

It’s good to see Mix getting his UFC opportunity while he’s still in his prime years, and a win over Bautista would be a great way to show what he can do. That’ll be easier said than done, but stylistically I do think he can emerge victorious here as I can see him having some success working takedowns, and while he might not find a submission finish, he’s skilled enough to have periods of control and put his opponent in some challenging spots. I’ll take Mix to win by decision.

Patchy Mix to win by decision

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Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland Prediction

Vicente Luque took just 52 seconds to submit Themba Gorimbo late last year and now squares up against Kevin Holland, who earned a unanimous decision victory over Gunnar Nelson back in March.

The 33-year-old Luque has traditionally been a tough, durable, action-orientated fighter with strong finishing ability both on the feet and on the mat. However, as a striker who is willing to eat strikes to land his own, there were serious concerns for Luque back in 2022 after a KO loss to Geoff Neal led to him suffering a brain hemorrhage. Thankfully a year later he was physically cleared to return, but there were doubts about whether he could overcome the mental baggage that comes with fighting again after such an alarming injury. A win over Rafael dos Anjos followed, but it was largely a tentative fight that wasn’t too informative. However, next time out he came up against the hard-hitting Joaquin Buckley and quickly appeared to wilt after getting stung by strikes, resulting in a TKO loss. That suggested Luque might not be the battling fighter he once was, but last time out he sat down on big punches early against Gorimbo and floored him before seizing on an anaconda choke for a fast finish. That was very much the Luque of years gone by, but the fight was over so quickly that it still leaves question marks about how he’ll cope when the going gets tougher.

Beating Gunnar Nelson was a nice win on the 32-year-old Holland’s resume, although some of the shine was perhaps taken off it by the fact his opponent seeming out-of-sorts after a two-year lay-off. Holland on the other hand has been fighting frequently, but struggling to consistently stay in the win column, having lost 6 of his last 10 fights while restlessly shifting between competing at 170lbs and 185lbs. Truth be told defeats have come regardless of which weight class he’s been in, but his size advantage is particularly distinct at welterweight, granting him a 4″ height and 5.5″ reach advantage over Luque here. And he uses those long levers fairly well with good straight punches and versatile kicks at range, while at closer quarters he can also mix in high knees and lengthy elbow strikes. That being said, it feels like he showed more promise on the feet earlier in his career and hasn’t really evolved since. Meanwhile, Holland’s defensive wrestling has been a weak-point that’s often led to him being taken down and controlled. He’s been able to improve upon that to an extent, though without finding an entirely reliable solution, but he is decently capable of using both wrestling and submissions offensively.

This would likely have been an exciting match-up several years ago, but that’s less certain in the present day. I’m still not convinced Luque is as willing or able to take strikes as he used to, and Holland will find a home for his punches and kicks so I’ll take ‘Trailblazer’ to find a 2^nd round TKO finish here.

Kevin Holland to win by TKO In Rd2

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UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Bruno Gustavo da Silva vs. Joshua Van
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson
Ariane da Silva vs. Wang Cong
Jeka Saragih vs. Yoo Joo-sang
Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz
MarQuel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski

MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

You can read more of Ross's work at MMAInsight.com.