UFC On ESPN: Bonfim vs. Brown Predictions

UFC On ESPN 73: Bonfim vs. Brown takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC On ESPN 73 Predictions

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Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown Prediction

Gabriel Bonfim is 5-1 in the UFC so far and riding a three-fight winning streak into this headlining fight against Randy Brown, who has won four of his last five fights, including a KO finish last time out.

The 28-year-old Bonfim is a talented all-rounder who added a high-profile scalp to his impressive 18-1 resume last time out with a split-decision win over Stephen Thompson. The only blemish on his record so far came in a fight against Nicolas Dalby two years ago that he repeatedly appeared to be on the verge of winning, only to burn through his energy reserves in the process before falling victim to a TKO finish. That felt like a one-off though, and sure enough he’s got back to winning ways since. On the feet Bonfim is a technically sound kickboxer with good speed and combination-work, though he’s not the heaviest hitter. Bonfim is also a solid wrestler, and that paves the way to his very good grappling ability that’s been his primary means of finding a finish, with 13 submission wins from 17 career victories.

The 35-year-old Brown is a long-limbed 170lb’er who will have a 2″ height and 6″ reach advantage here. Brown has a rangy kickboxing style and has demonstrated solid power, having finished a number of hard-headed opponents over the years like Nicolas Dalby, Muslim Salikhov and Bryan Barberena with punches. He can keep distance nicely with his kicks and also is a threat via knees at closer quarters. Brown can also mix in some takedowns too, has a few submission wins to his name and can often work back upright if taken down. However, he has been KO’d and submitted twice each during his nine-year UFC campaign.

Brown’s size and power advantage on the feet will be a threat here, but I believe Bonfim has a significant advantage on the mat that will lead him to a second round submission victory.

Gabriel Bonfim to win by Submission in Rd2

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Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales Prediction

Matt Schnell’s decision win back in April ended a three-fight losing slump and now he’ll square up to Joseph Morales, who won TUF 33’s flyweight tournament in his UFC debut in August.

Schnell’s UFC career has been a real mixed bag, going 7-7 (+1nc) so far. The 35-year-old likes to bring the fight to his opponent wherever the fight goes. He’s doggedly determined on the feet and will press forward with combinations and respectable power, but he’s more of a finishing threat on the mat thanks to his solid submission threat that’s led him to nine wins, including three triangle choke’s in the Octagon. Schnell also has a good record when fights go the distance, but his biggest issue has been that he’s vulnerable to being finished. Eight of his nine career losses have come inside the distance, with five of those being via strikes, including back-to-back KO defeats not so long ago. And unfortunately a questionable chin is a real problem for a fighter with his aggressive instincts.

The 31-year-old Morales actually had a prior run in the UFC back in 2017-2018, but only went 1-2 before being released. He got back up and running on the regional scene however to pave the way to a spot on TUF 33 that he made the most of. Morales is comfortable on the feet, but like Schnell he’s been more dangerous on the mat with seven submission stoppages, having won his last couple of fights via triangle choke off his back, while also having a few rear-naked choke finishes too. Meanwhile his solid cardio ensures that he has a knack of winning fights that go to the judges.

Morales doesn’t have as much high-level experience as Schnell, but at this stage of their careers he’s more durable and methodical in his approach, which I think will serve him well here as he locks in a second round submission finish.

Joseph Morales to win by Submission in Rd2

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Muslim Salikhov vs. Uros Medic Prediction

Muslim Salikhov is on a three-fight winning streak as he now prepares to go up against Uros Medic, who is coming in off a 63 second KO victory.

Salikhov’s current form is impressive when you consider that he’s now 41-years-old, and he’s been winning in style too, with his last two appearances ending via knockout in the opening round. Known as ‘The King Of Kung Fu’, Salikhov has a wealth of striking techniques at his disposal, but he’s a calculated striker who picks his moments to attack, sometimes with crisp fundamental kicks and punches, while mixing in the occasional spinning attack. And the latter option isn’t just for show as he’s actually finished two opponents in the Octagon via spinning wheel kicks. Salikhov also has the option of an underrated wrestling game that he can turn to if required. Of course his age has made him more economical with his output and overall exertion though, and his durability has become more of a concern in recent years, including being KO’d by this weekend’s headliner Randy Brown early last year.

The 32-year-old Medic has gone 5-3 in the UFC so far, with each of those fights having ended inside the distance. In fact, Medic has never been to a judges decision in his entire 11-3 career. He’s an aggressive, high-volume kickboxer who has stopped opponents in multiple divisions with his punching power, while he is also quite accurate, and like Salikhov he enjoys mixing in spinning techniques. Nine of his 11 career victories have come via strikes, but he has also managed a couple of submission wins too. That being said, his takedown defense is on the weak side and he’s fallen victim to submissions himself on two occasions.

Salikhov has done really well recently, and given how crafty of a striker he is he could always rack up another win here. Medic is dangerous too though, and with his relative youth, more active offense and proven finishing power I think he’ll get to the veteran’s chin and deliver a 2nd round TKO finish.

Uros Medic to win by TKO in Rd2

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Chris Padilla vs. Ismael Bonfim Prediction

Chris Padilla has gone 3-0 in the UFC so far and now goes up against Ismael Bonfim, who has put together a 2-2 run.

The 30-year-old Padilla’s path to the UFC was a curious one given that he started his pro-career strongly with seven wins in a row, only to lose six of his next nine bouts. He then steadied the ship with a trio of wins to get his chance in the UFC, and has gone unbeaten in his three fights since. Padilla will benefit from a 3″ reach advantage here and previously used his long arms to land a nasty elbow strike against Rhong Zu that forced a doctor’s stoppage. Generally speaking striking is not where Padilla does his best work though. Instead preferring to close the distance and get the fight to the mat, where he’s good at seeking out finishing opportunities by both ground-and-pound and submissions.

The 29-year-old Bonfim’s skill-set leans more towards striking than his younger brother, who headlines this event. In particular his prior experience in boxing shines through as he he has fast and technical punches, good defense and respectable power. That being said, his only TKO loss did come last time out against Nazim Sadykhov after being caught by a head kick, but he showed his toughness to fight on until the resulting cut led to a doctor’s stoppage. Meanwhile, Bonfim has improved his solid wrestling over time and does have a few submission wins on his record, but he’s not proven to be quite as adapt of a grappler as his brother, with four of his five career defeats coming via submission.

Bonfim has a significant striking advantage here and has the better wrestling too, and so I favor him to look to keep this one standing and emerge with a decision victory.

Ismael Bonfim to win by decision

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Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos Prediction

Ricky Simon has had back-to-back wins so far this year and now fights Raoni Barcelos, who is on a three-fight winning streak.

The 33-year-old Simon hit a rough patch a couple of years ago that saw him lose three fights in a row, but has done well to turn things around this year. He’s an industrious fighter whose mix of pressure-heavy boxing and wrestling is perhaps more tenacious than technical, so he leans on his toughness, determination and good cardio to gain the upper-hand. And that’s worked out decently for him as hehas a solid 10-5 record overall in the UFC.

Like Simon, Barcelos’ form took a dip a few years ago, losing four out of five fights between 2021-2023, which was very unlike him given that he’d gone 16-1 before that. At the time it looked like age might be catching up to him, but the now 39-year-old’s resurgence in form since then has been impressive, including handing hotly-tipped prospect Payton Talbott his first career loss earlier this year. In his heyday Barcelos fought at a ferocious pace, and while he’s not able to fight at quite the same intensity or speed, he’s still very tricky to deal with and can turn the heat up when required. He’s an active striker with good volume who transitions well into his takedown attempts and has solid ground-and-pound on top, as well as being an assured grappler.

Two experienced and well-rounded fighters here, so I think this might well be a close fight that goes all the way to the scorecards, with Simon’s robust, hard-working style and physicality helping him edge out a narrow decision win.

Ricky Simon to win by decision

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Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Marco Tulio Prediction

Christian Leroy Duncan has back-to-back wins under his belt this year and now squares up to Marco Tulio, who has racked up two TKO victories in the UFC so far.

The 30-year-old Duncan is a dynamic, creative striker who likes to mix in flashy, eye-catching moves while still maintaining his accuracy. In his last fight against Eryk Anders two months ago he delivered a spinning back elbow KO finish, and while that’s become a fashionable move lately, it’s nothing new to CLD, who also won his final Cage Warriors fight back in 2022 in the same manner. In fact, elbows in general have been a running theme for him as two more of his UFC wins came via that method, while his 9 career finishes via strikes also includes spinning heel kick and flying knee TKO stoppages. CLD can wrestle too, but on the downside he doesn’t fare as well when he’s being put on the back foot, and his offensively-minded striking style does leave him open defensively at times.

After two wins on the Contender Series in 2023 and 2024, the 31-year-old Tulio finally earned a spot in the UFC, and has gone on to extend his career record to 14-1 with a couple of stoppage wins in the Octagon. Tulio will be at a 2″ height and 5″ reach disadvantage here, but like Duncan he is a clear danger on the feet with an explosive muay thai striking game that’s earned him 10 finishes from 14 career victories, including a spinning back kick TKO in his 2nd Contender series bout. He’s also durable, though he’s been willing to eat more shots than he should at times. He does have a submission win on his record, but prefers to keep the fight upright. That isn’t always possible though due to his takedown defense not being the best.

I’d expect to see a very competitive striking battle here, but I like Duncan’s size, creative flair and takedown threat to help him to a decision victory here.

Christian Leroy Duncan to win by decision

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UFC On ESPN 73 Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Hyder Amil vs. Jamall Emmers
Adrian Yañez vs. Cristian Quiñónez
Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Josh Hokit vs. Max Gimenis
Miles Johns vs. Daniel Marcos
Tecia Pennington vs. Denise Gomes
Jackson McVey vs. Robert Valentin

MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

You can read more of Ross's work at MMAInsight.com.