UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane Predictions

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Etihad arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC 321 Predictions

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Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane Prediction

Former interim heavyweight titleholder Tom Aspinall was upgraded to official champion status after Jon Jones retirement earlier this year and now finally gets to make his first title defense against Ciryl Gane, who is coming in off back-to-back victories.

Despite Aspinall’s eagerness to stay active, Jon Jones reluctance to defend the belt against him led to a painfully long stand-off that means it’ll have been 15 months since the 32-year-old UK star last fought when he finally steps into the Octagon on Saturday night. Aspinall has bounced back successfully after a long layoff before though as he was out for a full year after suffering a freak knee injury against Curtis Blaydes back in 2022, before returning with three 1^st round finishes in a row. That continues a long running trend, as Aspinall has in fact finished all 15 of his career wins inside the distance, with all but one of them coming in the opening round. Aspinall is a big heavyweight, but also a fast, athletic and cerebral one with good footwork serving as a solid platform to deliver his hard-hitting offense. He trained in boxing from a young age and has even trained with the Fury brothers in the past, but he’s also comfortable mixing in kicks into his combinations and makes good use of knees and elbows too. Aspinall benefits from being well-rounded as he has respectable takedowns and is a confident grappler with three submission finishes to his name. Since Aspinall has been steamrollering his opponents there’s still question marks about how his stamina will hold out if he has to fight into the later rounds, and we haven’t seen how he’ll respond if he’s the one coming off second-best in a bout.

A few years ago Gane had a somewhat similar rise up the UFC ranks to his opponent, winning the interim heavyweight title in 2021 to extend his unbeaten career record to 10-0. Like Aspinall, Gane was a big physical presence, but also in great shape, appearing to have well-rounded skills and a patient, measured approach to fighting that the heavyweight division isn’t typically known for. That latter point meant that despite having good power he wasn’t as much of a finisher as Aspinall, but his technique, distance-management and cardio were good, and he also had time to show off some offensive wrestling chops and get a few submission wins under his belt too. However, a much-hyped title showdown with his former training partner Francis Ngannou in 2022 unexpectedly exposed a big weakness in his defensive wrestling that led to a disappointing decision loss, while in 2023 Jon Jones swiftly despatched him with an easy takedown and submission finish. Gane has since steadied the ship with two victories, but even so lingering doubts remain about his ground game.

This is an intriguing match-up as they match up well both physically and stylistically. Gane has shown before that he has the cardio to go five rounds, and with his patient approach to the striking game from range it could be that he might look to take Aspinall beyond the opening couple of rounds for the first time in his career. Aspinall isn’t a fighter who expends his energy needlessly either though and he likes to stay technical too, so I don’t think he’ll be out of his comfort zone on the feet if that’s how things play out. However, Aspinall also have more of a killer instinct and will attack with fight-stopping power when he sees opening, and given that he also has the tools to present a big challenge to Gane’s shaky wrestling and grappling defense, the champion appears to have what it takes to emerge victorious here. It might take him a bit longer than usual, but I’ll say Aspinall still finds a submission or ground and pound finish before the end of the second round.

Tom Aspinall to win by submission in Rd2

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Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern Prediction

With Zhang Weili having vacated the strawweight title in order to challenge herself up at flyweight, that leaves the vacant 115lb belt up for grabs when Virna Jandiroba puts her five-fight winning streak to the test in a rematch against Mackenzie Dern, who beat her by decision back in 2020 and is coming off back-to-back wins.

A former Invicta FC champion, Jandiroba had a mixed start to her time in the UFC, going 3-3, but has since hit her stride with a good winning streak over the past three years. She’s getting up there age wise at 37-years-old, but she’s still a tough, gritty fighter who makes up for her lack of technical finesse on the feet with strong takedowns and control on the mat. Jandiroba is also a proven grappler who has racked up no less than 14 submission finishes from 22 career victories, while she’s also never been stopped inside the distance. That being said, she’s only earned one submission in the last five years, while she’s only won once by strikes in her entire career.

The 32-year-old Dern generated a lot of excitement when she first arrived in the UFC back in 2018 due to the fact that she was already well known as an elite, high-profile BJJ player with star potential. However, while she hasn’t done badly, particularly during a 7-1 start to life in the promotion, she’s never quite lived up to expectations, including hitting a rough patch with just two wins in six fights that’s meant it’s only now that she’s finally getting her first title opportunity. The big problem for Dern has been that she’s struggled to elevate the rest of her MMA game to support her high-level jiu-jitsu. Poor wrestling has meant she’s struggled to get the fight to the mat in the first place, and though she’s tried to develop her striking, crucial components like technique, speed and fluidity haven’t come naturally to her. Dern is certainly mentally tough though, but at times that’s meant she’s just resorted to brawling and eating too many punches for her own good. It’s a flaw she acknowledges she has to improve on though, and there have been signs of improvement lately.

The first fight between these two five years ago was close and there’s no reason to suggest otherwise here. Both fighters are clearly most dangerous on the mat, and Jandiroba does have the better wrestling to get it there, but Dern would welcome any opportunity to work her BJJ and so there’s a risk they just cancel each other out. As such I think there’s a good chance we actually see a lot of the fight taking place on the feet instead. That’s unlikely to be a thrilling prospect, but given that Dern has improved slightly from the last time they fought and is less prone to simply brawling than in the past, I think she’ll feel comfortable going up against someone who has neither a technical or power advantage over her. As such, I’ll take Dern to win the early rounds and then hang on in there to claim a decision victory.

Mackenzie Dern to win by decision

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Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista Prediction

Umar Nurmagomedov’s six-fight winning start to life in the UFC ended with a defeat to current champion Merab Dvalishvili in January. Now he returns to action against Mario Bautista, who has racked up an eight-fight unbeaten run.

Nurmagomedov’s loss last time out ended an undefeated record that had lasted for 18 fights, and also means he’s not yet been able to match the achievements of his older brother Usman and cousin Khabib by winning a major title. At 29-years-old there’s still time for that though, and his well-rounded skills continue to make him a threat at the upper end of the division. Nurmagomedov’s stand-up has proven to be a real asset for him, showing off good speed and distance management that’s reinforced by a dynamic kicking game to keep his opponent at bay. That helps him to be able to hit without being hit in return, and also makes him harder to take down. Of course coming from the famed Nurmagomedov family he is also a solid wrestler too and has good grappling to go with it, with submissions being his best finishing weapon, accounting for 7 of his 18 career wins.

The 32-year-old Bautista’s eight-fight winning streak includes decision wins over the likes of former Bellator star Patchy Mix, Jose Aldo and Ricky Simon, but he’s still only reached the No.8 spot in the 135lb rankings so far. Bautista is a hard-working, well-conditioned fighter who is comfortable wherever the fight goes. He’s not much of a finisher on the feet with just three TKO wins to his name, with the last one dating back to 2020. However, he looks to compensate for that by staying busy and applying pressure behind solid enough striking technique, and he is also strong in the clinch. He benefits from his willingness to mix in takedowns too, setting up opportunities for ground-and-pound and submissions, the later of which delivered three finishes in a row mid-way through his current unbeaten stretch. His takedown defense is less convincing though, but he’s hard to put away, having only been submitted once in his career and once by TKO.

Bautista is a solid all-rounder who can push a good pace, but it feels like Nurmagomedov is the more skilled fighter wherever the fight goes and I think he’ll be able to mix in his kicks from a safe distance with a few takedowns to ensure he gets the nod on the scorecards.

Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision

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Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida Prediction

Alexander Volkov narrowly lost to Ciryl Gane by split-decision last time out, ending a four-fight winning streak. Now he returns to fight Jailton Almeida, who is coming off back-to-back victories.

The 36-year-old Volkov has been a dependable presence in the UFC’s heavyweight division for the past nine years, but though he’s beaten the likes of Sergei Pavlovich, Alistair Overeem, Fabricio Werdum and Jairzinho Rozenstruik, he’s repeatedly fallen just short of getting a title shot. Volkov has a large frame even by heavyweight standards at 6ft 7″ with an 80″ reach, and makes full use of that with his seasoned kickboxing ability from range. He’s a methodical striker who doesn’t rush in looking for a kill-shot, and instead keeps fighters on the end of his straight punches and rangy kicks. He’s not the quickest, but he does have good power, which can lead to an early stoppage, though he’s generally better at breaking down opponents over time with steady combinations. Volkov also has developed respectable takedown defense over the years that he’ll use to try to keep the fight standing, as while not a fish out of water on the mat, it’s not his strong suit.

The 34-year-old Almeida has put together a very solid 8-1 record in the UFC so far, including seven stoppage wins. He’s an athletic heavyweight who will be giving up 3″ in height to Volkov, but only an inch in height. Striking isn’t really Almeida’s biggest asset, but he is competent enough to get by and is light on his feet to keep out of harms way until he moves in for takedown opportunities. And that’s something he’ll do often with good success as he’s a well-versed wrestler who has good control when on top, together with a proven submission game that’s delivered 13 finishes from 22 career wins. He also has damaging ground-and-pound too, and that means he’s only needed to go to the scorecards once in his career.

If Volkov can keep this one standing then he certainly has the advantage in the striking department, but I think Almeida will be able to take him down and impose his superior ground game to gain control of the fight, resulting in a decision win.

Jailton Almeida to win by decision

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Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov Prediction

Aleksander Rakic has suffered defeat in his last three Octagon appearances and will now try to turn things around against the undefeated Azamat Murzakhanov, whose 15-0 record includes five wins in the UFC so far.

A few years ago Rakic was in good form, going 6-1 in the Octagon, but he then suffered an ACL during aTKO loss to Jan Blachowicz in 2022, which sidelined him for a couple of years. And since his return he’s been TKO’d by ex-champ Jiri Prochazka, and lost on the scorecards to future champ Magomedov Ankalaev. Rakic is a striker who has at times in the past shown his dynamic finishing ability, but these days he tends to adopt a more patient kickboxing approach from range, while also been willing to mix in takedowns to help ensure he emerges victorious on the scorecards. It’s not been enough for him recently though to get his hand raised and so there’s real pressure on him to turn things around this weekend.

The 36-year-old Murzakanov is small and unassuming physically for a light-heavyweight at just 5ft 10″ with a 71″ reach, which means he’ll be giving up a whopping 7″ in both height and reach to Rakic. His build hasn’t been a hindrance so far in his career though, as despite having a patient approach his boxing-orientated striking has proven to be both potent and accurate, and he’s crafty at finding routes to land his punches against bigger opponents. He has a strong finishing rate to prove it, with 11 T(KO)’s from 15 career wins, four of which have come during his time in the UFC, including a flying knee finish in his debut. This is a clear step up in competition for him though, going up against the No.7 ranked contender after having previously beaten the likes of Brendson Ribeiro, Alonzo Menifield and Dustin Jacoby.

If you just look at these two fighters side-by-side you’d think Rakic was almost certain to be the winner, but appearances can be deceiving and Murzakanov is a genuine threat here. And with Rakic being out-of-sorts and less dangerous that in the past, I think Murzakanov can navigate the distance well here to find a home for a finishing blow in the 2nd round.

Azamat Murzakanov to win by TKO in Rd2

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UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane Prelims

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(Predicted winners in bold)

Ľudovít Klein vs. Mateusz Rębecki
Ikram Aliskerov vs. Park Jun-yong
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Matheus Camilo
Nathaniel Wood vs. Jose Miguel Delgado
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Chris Barnett
Azat Maksum vs. Mitch Raposo
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki Inoue

MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

You can read more of Ross's work at MMAInsight.com.