Kentucky Derby Tips: Trifecta & First Four

We have expert horse racing tips for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Sunday morning, which is the first leg of the Triple Crown, and one of the biggest races in the world.

20 runners line up for the Run to the Roses, where race favourite Journalism looks to convert the hype to a Derby win.

The race features the likes of Journalism, Sovereignty, and Burnham Square, and the best Australian betting sites have value odds available!

Our best bets for Kentucky Derby

Best Bet:

#8 Journalism @ $3.20

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Best Each Way:

#18 Sovereignty @ $6.00

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Best Roughie:

#7 Luxor Cafe @ $11.00

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Kentucky Derby Tips for Trifecta

Punters should have five runners on their ticket for Kentucky Derby trifecta. We recommend taking a boxed percentage trifecta. Spend what you want, and the payouts can be massive.

Journalism
Sovereignty
Luxor Cafe
Rodriguez
Burnham Square

Kentucky Derby First-Four Tips

We have included eight runners for our Chairman’s Sprint Prize first-four. Boxing all eight selections for a percentage can still result in a huge payout, and you spend what you want.

Journalism
Sovereignty
Luxor Cafe
Rodriguz
Burnham Square
Tiztastic
Sandman
Grande

Kentucky Derby Form Guide & Tips

(1) Citizen Bull ($15.00)

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He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year, but he hasn’t quite kicked on with it. He had everything to suit in the Santa Anita Derby, but he couldn’t keep up the gallop.

Winning this race might be beyond him, especially if they pressure him up front.

(2) Neoeqous ($67.00)

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He has yet to win past 1200m, and we can’t see that changing. Big odds are very little chance of causing an upset.

(3) Final Gambit ($21.00)

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A solid chance of finishing in the first four if he handles running on dirt tracks for the first time. His wins on grass have been good, and the Jeff Ruby Steaks is usually a good form guide.

Money has come for him, so it could pay to follow the moves.

(4) Rodriguez ($17.00)

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Bob Baffert is back from a three-year suspension with Rodriguez, and who would doubt the master trainer? He’s controversial, but he knows how to train Derby winners.

Rodriguez won the Wood Memorial with ease, and we have seen that form be franked in the Kentucky Derby in the last five years. He’s a trifecta and first four pick.

(5) American Promise ($26.00)

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He needs to be right on the speed to have any chance, like many of these runners. He’s not overly versatile, and that could be the determining factor.

We’re not interested in the $26 odds.

(6) Admire Daytona ($26.00)

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A Japanese runner that doesn’t have the same appeal as Luxor Cafe. He won the UAE Derby, but we can’t see him mapping well in a high-pressure race.

(7) Luxor Cafe (Best Roughie – $11.00)

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An unbeaten Japanese runner, who is a real chance of giving Japan its first Kentucky Derby champion.

He is two-from-two, and although racing in the US isn’t easy, there is good betting support, and that’s good to see. Include him in Kentucky Derby picks.

(8) Journalism (Best Bet – $3.20)

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The highest-rated runner in the Kentucky Derby field, and he could show why on Sunday. He has good form leading into the Derby, including a win in the Santa Anita Derby.

If he wins this race, the Triple Crown is there for the taking, and given his sustained speed, he could put this race away at the top of the straight.

(9) Burnham Square ($10.00)

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We’re including Burnham Square in our picks. He hasn’t been amazing throughout his three-year-old career, but he has been solid.

The Blue Grass Stakes winner could improve with racing, and his ceiling might not have been reached yet.

(10) Grande ($26.00)

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There has been some specking for Grande. Todd Pletcher lines up the colt, who chased Rodriguez in the Wood Memorial.

He didn’t have much luck in that race after being caught wide, so include him at $26 odds.

(11) Flying Mohawk ($51.00)

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There is some promise with Flying Mohawk, but this race could have come too soon for him, hence the odds.

(12) East Avenue ($21.00)

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A speedy customer who could have some company up front. That’s the biggest worry, but if he can lead on his own, he’s good enough to kick and win.

He’s a Grade 1 winner, so that should count for something, but it all depends on how much pressure he cops up front.

(13) Publisher ($41.00)

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It would be fun to see Journalism and Publisher run the quinella, but we can’t see it. He’s not quite up to this level.

(14) Tiztastic ($13.00)

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He was earmarked as a Kentucky Derby contender early, and he won the Louisiana Derby in fine style. He needs to rise to another level, but he could settle back and work home well.

He’s worth including at the odds.

(15) Render Judgement ($101.00)

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The outsider of the field and he’ll be gassed before the home stretch.

(16) Coal Battle ($26.00)

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He didn’t handle the pace up front in the Arkansas Derby. He did win two Grade 2 races prior, but the wind might have come out of his sails.

(17) Sandman ($10.00)

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Not much has gone his way this preparation, but that turned around when winning the Arkansas Derby when things panned out nicely.

Not thrilled by the $10, but he’s an each-way chance if you have room for him.

(18) Sovereignty (Best Each Way – $6.00)

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Not helped by the draw but he’s likely to get back and relish a strong tempo up front. His turn-of-foot is good enough to down them late.

He’s not the conventional Kentucky Derby winner but respect his chances at each-way odds because he’s tough.

(19) Chunk of Gold ($34.00)

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Paid big odds when running second in the Risen Star. Trying to replicate that run could prove difficult.

(20) Owen Almighty ($51.00)

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He didn’t run well in the Blue Grass Stakes, which puts a line through his chances.

Editor In Chief

Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.

Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports.

Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.