Geelong vs. Hawthorn Predictions

We have Geelong vs. Hawthorn predictions for AFL Preliminary Finals on Friday September 19 at 7:40pm at the MCG.

Geelong are the favourites to get past an upstart Hawthorn outfit, in what will be a massive Melbourne crowd to kick-start the prelims.

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Best Bet

Geelong -8.5 @ $1.90

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Betting against Hawthorn isn’t easy, especially after picking them to win before the season started. However, Geelong passes the eye test, and its experience playing in preliminary finals should be too much for the Hawks.

The Cats won 86-79 in their last meeting in 2025, and after beating the Brisbane Lions with ease two weeks ago, they’re the form team of the competition. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game, whereas the Hawks had to battle past Adelaide in a physical game last week.

We expect the likes of Jeremy Cameron and Patrick Dangerfield to show why they’re two of the more dominant players in the AFL, and although the youthfulness of the Hawks is a positive, when the pressure goes on in the second half, it’s Geelong that should stand up and deliver.

Take the –8.5 line before money comes for the Cats throughout the week.

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Same Game Multi

Geelong -8.5, Jeremy Cameron 3+ Goals, Shannon Neale 2+ Goals, Total Match Points Over 165.5 @ $7.50

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Punters get value odds for Cameron to score 3+ goals, and although he scored only two goals against Brisbane, he squandered many good opportunities to put more points on the board. That’s unlikely to be the case again, so the $2.07 odds are worth taking.

We also like Shannon Neale to get back to his best after scoring one goal against Brisbane. He has 15 goals from his last five games, so he’s averaging three goals per game recently. That is enough to see him score 2+ goals on Friday night.

We’re also including over 165.5 in our AFL SGM picks. They combined for 165 points in April, and it should be an open contest with plenty of goal-scoring opportunities.

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Best Value Bet

Jeremy Cameron First Goal Scorer @ $8.00

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Cameron should look to get on the board early, and he’s the tall timber for the Cats inside the 50.

We expect Cameron to insert his dominance on the Hawks’ defence, which doesn’t have anyone who can tower above him. That’s where Geelong can take advantage, and we’re backing him to kick the opening goal.

Punters get $8 odds, which is well worth including in AFL picks this week.

Editor In Chief

Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.

Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports.

Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.